Black Swans vs. Canary in the Coal Mine

Column by Doug Herman.

Exclusive to STR 

Not all Black Swans are created equally.
Orchestrated human events are rarely Black Swan events. No matter how surprising to the masses, sudden and spectacular world events are rarely random, or so called Black Swans. Most Black Swans are human creations, created by and for the power elites. Pearl Harbor (1941), followed by the New Pearl Harbor (9-11) followed by the Newer Pearl Harbor in Iran (2012), are NOT Black Swan events but simply diabolic plans well understood by the elites well in advance, to create the problem, reaction, solution desired.  
By contrast, most canaries are created equal. Ron Paul is a canary in the coal mine. William Cooper was a canary in the coal mine. Gerald Celente is a canary in the coal mine. What do they all share? Simply an intelligent grasp of what will happen if sociopaths do the bidding of psychopaths in power. You are probably a canary in the coal mine too if you possess an open mind and are aware that the mainstream media serves as a propaganda organ for those who invent so-called Black Swans. 
The creeping fascism of America didn’t start on September 11, 2001. The erosion of the Constitution began far earlier. Few can agree on an exact date. I’m tempted to say the erosion began July 4, 1776. Yet fascism now permits a few Black Swanners to plan and execute a series of wars against people and nations who never attacked us, while over-riding the Constitution.
The final fall of fiat currency is a Black Swan event. No one saw it coming. No one saw it coming, they’ll report on CNN or MSNBC, except a few million people on the Internet, who fully expected and predicted the Epic Fail of fiat currency. 
Ron Paul is a canary in the coal mine, and so is James Turk and Jim Sinclair. These are rational people who believe gold is money and paper money is manipulated. Gold is a canary in the coal mine too, and silver also. The epic collapse of paper currency, the medium of exchange for the masses invented by the power elites, will be reported as a Black Swan event by the mainstream media, but once again, as is often the case, they will be wrong.
If someone told you that Greece and Persia would somehow play significant roles in American history, you would be surprised. Yet Greece, that former cradle of democracy, is bankrupt, which may thus cause other formerly sovereign nations to go bankrupt, which may cause worldwide panic and thus trigger more bankruptcies. Unless of course a Black Swan event suddenly serves as a global distraction. Thus Persia needs to be attacked. The domino effect of a possible paper money default on an epic, worldwide scale must be avoided, even if another phony war on terror occurs. I sometimes wonder whether Mr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who invented the concept of Black Swan events, and who also benefited from the economic collapse of 1987 and 2008, will once again trumpet the wholly predictable collapse as another BS event. Because truly it is a bull shit event.
As our foremost canary in the coal mine observed: “Believe me, the next step is a currency crisis because there will be a rejection of the dollar, the rejection of the dollar is a big, big event, and then your personal liberties are going to be severely threatened.”
However, other knowledgeable canaries in the coal mine, like yourself, who read STR every morning, who frequent sites like Zerohedge, SHTF-Plan or TFMetalsreport, these BS Black Swans rarely surprise us. The poison gases may overwhelm us, but the events rarely surprise us. We predict them instead. Nothing the psychopaths in power do any more surprises us. We expect a false flag attack leading to a war against wholly innocent people because we’ve seen it many times before. We expect it but never condone it. We expect the worst and prepare the best we can. We’re canaries. Not Black Swans. 
We don’t do fascism. We don’t do poison, we warn about its spread and contagion. Ron Paul, the aging canary in the coal mine warned about this poison: “All initiation of force is a violation of someone else's rights, whether initiated by an individual or the state, for the benefit of an individual or group of individuals, even if it's supposed to be for the benefit of another individual or group of individuals.” Canaries recognize Black Swans; simple as that.  My prediction for the War Iran Black Swan False Flag Event is March 19th. This was the same date the conflict with Libya began last year, initiated by NATO, and the same date the Iraq War began.
Postscript: If you want to know about a real, possible, natural Black Swan event, however scary, read 400 Chernobyls by Matt Stein. Makes you understand why the powers-that-be probably have those (rumored) secret underground bunkers prepared for themselves.
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Douglas Herman's picture
Columns on STR: 149

Award winning artist, photographer and freelance journalist, Douglas Herman can be found wandering the back roads of America. Doug authored the political crime thriller, The Guns of Dallas  and wrote and directed the Independent feature film,Throwing Caution to the Windnaturally a "road movie," and credits STR for giving him the impetus to write well, both provocatively and entertainingly. A longtime gypsy, Doug completed a 10,000 mile circumnavigation of North America, by bicycle, at the age of 35, and still wanders between Bullhead City, Arizona and Kodiak, Alaska with forays frequently into the so-called civilized world of Greater LA. Write him at Roadmovie2 @


John deLaubenfels's picture

Good points, but I was frustrated by the lack of links to the people and events you're referring to. I may be very ignorant, but the term "Black Swan Event" was not familiar to me. Here's an explanation for other ignoramuses:

Similarly, I haven't followed William Cooper, apparently a famous conspiracy theorist (, or James Turk or Jim Sinclair. A link to your favorite site featuring each of these men would be appreciated.

Also am a little baffled by your statement:

The erosion of the Constitution began far earlier. Few can agree on an exact date. I’m tempted to say the erosion began July 4, 1776.

The erosion of the Constitution began 11 years before the Constitution was written?

Douglas Herman's picture

Hi John,
Thanks for your remarks re BS vs CITCM. All of your insights are valid. I wish I knew how to hyper-link correctly when I write these columns on Word. Since I was born in the 19th century and my mind never completely grasped 20th century tech, I often epic fail myself when confronted with the simplest tech tasks.

As for my mistake re Constitution, it could be argued that our erosion of rights and freedoms failed with the Mayflower Compact. Just kidding of course, but I stand corrected. BTW, I always enjoy your works here. D

Jim Davies's picture

Thank you Doug, a good one.

I hope you're wrong, of course. The psychopaths are certainly preparing the public for an attack on Iran, but I'm not sure the decision maker will pick that option in this election year. After two failed wars and an ongoing economic crisis, he may prefer to go to voters with "Look! I said I'd get us out of the Middle East, and I'm on track!"

I agree with your choice of 1776. The Declaration of Independence is badly flawed, riddled with inside-the-box absurdities (see my which later produced the even more flawed charter for a new government.

Douglas Herman's picture

Hi Jim,
Thanks for the compliments. I rarely make predictions but when I do I hope I'm wrong. I have been following the candidacy of Ron Paul vs the Evil Empire (EE) for some time now. It's almost like a bad reality TV show. And while one part of me wants Ron to do well, and thus my country and the world to do well, another part of me wants Ron to fade to footnote status and Obromney to win. I do NOT want Ron to die like Paul Wellstone, in a mysterious fiery plane crash with his entire family, simply because he spoke truth to power. I would rather Ron just fade away, and our empire either face her problems or fade away, as all empires do eventually, when morally and economically bankrupt.

As for the POTUS, what can he do? As I outlined in my column, "The American President - Actor,
Chauffeur, Salesman, Puppet," (tried to hyper-link but failed), the US prez can only do what he is told to do, by the PTB.

All the best Jim, keep up the good work.

Jim Davies's picture

That link might be

The EE will end only when no grunts will work for it; and that won't be many more years. See

Suverans2's picture

First, the so-called Declaration of Independence is a document and therefor cannot "produce" anything. And, second, I am under the impression that the "charter for a new government" was designed to undo the 'damage' done by the so-called Declaration of Independence.

Then I went and read The Source of Evil and found this:

    "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

Followed, closely, by this:

    "That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed . . . ." Oops! A total non sequitur, riddled with contradictions.

Frédéric Bastiat wrote (c.1848):

    "...nothing can be more evident than this: The law [government] is the organization of the natural right of lawful defense. It is the substitution of a common force for individual forces. And this common force is to do only what the individual forces have a natural and lawful right to do: to protect individuals, liberties, and properties, to maintain the right of each, and to cause justice to reign over us all."

Is this not precisely what the so-called Declaration of Independence sought to do?

From all that I have read, here at STR, you call it a non sequitur based solely on the fact that "no government had ever been created having only the delegated authority of its members[1], therefor it can never be done". It would have to be called something else if it were restricted to that one lawful function. Fine, call it something else then, but you will have the same problem restricting a "private protection agency", because an "agent" that has enough raw power to protect your un-alien-able rights, has enough raw power to take them.

[1] "...every man has the right to defend - even by force – his person, his liberty, and his property, then it follows that a group of men have the right to organize and support a common force to protect these rights constantly. Thus the principle of collective right - its reason for existing, its lawfulness - is based on individual right. And the common force that protects this collective right cannot logically have any other purpose or any other mission than that for which it acts as a substitute. Thus, since an individual cannot lawfully use [initiate] force against the person, liberty, or property of another individual, then the common force - for the same reason - cannot lawfully be used to destroy the person, liberty, or property of individuals or groups.
Such a perversion of force would be, in both cases, contrary to our premise." ~ Excerpted from The Law by Frédéric Bastiat

brandonchristensen's picture

Great stuff.

My only worry is that canaries are often put into cages before they are taken into the coal mines! Hahah!

David Calderwood's picture

You wrote,
As our foremost canary in the coal mine observed: “Believe me, the next step is a currency crisis because there will be a rejection of the dollar, the rejection of the dollar is a big, big event, and then your personal liberties are going to be severely threatened.”

I wish I believed things were this simple. My experience is that even those who appear a dozen times smarter than I am often get the details wrong in their forecasts. Sadly, it is the details that matter when it comes to prudent planning.

Today we are awash in IOU's. Private IOU's, corporate IOU's, and (above all, now) political system IOU's (e.g., Japan and Greece on opposite poles of the continuum). Paradoxically, even in a fiat money environment where credit-money far, far, far outnumbers physical money (i.e. printed currency), social psychology is all that backs the galaxy of IOU's.

If social psychology changes, and the trust that underpins the VALUE associated with those IOU's falls (as it has in Greece), then IOU's denominated in that currency regime evaporate.

This is the THE question to be answered, and answered soon (I'd think). If the only "money" being created is credit-money, and people collectively change their minds about the likelihood they'll be PAID when those IOU's mature, the money supply should shrink unless the PTB resort to printing ever-higher denominations of currency to replace the IOU's. This seems very unlikely until a full-blown economic crisis, an Asteroid-Strike level banking catastrophe, has already occurred. This view argues in favor of, first we see hyper-deflation (in a credit revulsion process of relatively brief duration) and only after the financial landscape is figuratively bombed to dust will we finally see the remaining PTB turn to the Wiemar Solution.

The question thus revolves around social psychology, in my opinion. My view is that there remains no honor among thieves, and eventually our current untenable situation will result in an every-man-for-himself in the Halls of Power.